Two things today - 1) the fact that some farmers have already reached their ANNUAL rain fall (before the end of July) and 2) my prediction that we’re in for an early spring.
I spoke with Bruce Wills from the Hawke’s Bay again this week. Last time I spoke to Bruce was during the torrential rain there a few weeks back, since then the heaviest rain has stopped but the farms are still saturated due to showers. He says there have been a number of slips which will take a few weeks to get cleared off tracks and repairs made to fences.
Incredibly Bruce was saying most farms have now had their annual total of rain. The big question now is, will the rest of the year even those numbers up - through another big dry - OR, will more rain lead to record breaking levels. I can't answer that but what is promising is the increase in westerly winds lately - a sign that we may be entering an early spring...and westerlies are a good drying out wind for Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne.
It's hard to sit here in the depths of winter and talk like the worst is over... but it's quite possible that it is. At least as far as the extreme cold goes.
For the past week or so the weather pattern has shifted into what looks more like a spring weather pattern, but it seems far too early. There are fronts quickly crossing New Zealand from the west and one of the biggest tell-tale signs - an increase in winds from the westerly quarter. They can be nor'westers or sou'westers - and more often than not a combination of both over a short period of time.
The long range maps for the rest of this month show this very weather pattern. A strong south to south west flow developing early next week, then most likely shifting to westerlies or nor'westers by the weekend in the south.
Snow storms are possible well into spring so one would be foolish to say "that's it, it's downhill to summer now", but as every day ticks by, and the days gradually get longer, the likelihood of a prolonged, significant, snow storm certainly reduces bit by bit.
I think we are in for an early spring this year. At the end of autumn WeatherWatch.co.nz's long term prediction for winter, based on the current weather patterns, was that the first two months would be warmer than average for most, especially northern New Zealand. For August I see no reason why this pattern would change.
The question now is - What will spring hold?
Well, spring is always a wild season full of variables. Those in the east of the North Island will be wanting nor'westers and drier weather.
Either way, 2010 is certainly giving us some clear regional differences weather-wise. Either cold and clear or wet and warm.
