This question is being raised increasingly often - are we heading for another drought?

As mostly dry, warm weather continues to affect much of the country, and as water tank levels start to fall, many are questioning NIWA's prediction of average to above average rainfall for northern, eastern and southern New Zealand this summer.

I've taken a close look at the current weather maps and believe that while it is dry at the moment, we are not seeing a repeat of last year's set up.

Last year, we had no sign of rain and a long range prediction of a dry summer.  This year, while we have started the dry season early, we are still predicting normal rainfall for most this summer.

Take Friday's set up, for example.  We don't have a big solid high over us.

Yes, the air pressure is still quite high but we have three weak areas of low pressure around us. One to the west, another to the north and a new low forming to the south east.

There are several frontal systems closing in on the country and while they are weak and fickle, their combined efforts may see a little rain moving in to northern and western parts of the North Island and southern and eastern parts of the South Island during Saturday and overnight Saturday.

We are seeing - painfully slowly for some - an increase in rain-making systems around the country.

Hopefully, as we slide into summer, the rain makers will increase a little more - not enough to ruin the holidays but enough to ensure most regions get healthy rainfall numbers.

Western areas of the nation may not be so lucky though, with Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Nelson most vulnerable to drier than normal conditions this summer.