Economists are warning that it could be the end of the golden weather with commodity prices about to falter.

Continuing strength in dairy and timber exports and a boost from meat and fruit exports have pushed New Zealand to a trade surplus, the meat export sector looks as though it will remain strong for a while, but there are warning signs in other sectors.

Dairy prices have peaked and Fonterra is forecasting a drop of 13 per cent in next year’s payout, as demand from China decreases, and supply in the United States ramps up.

In the forestry sector prices and volumes were under pressure with falling demand for construction around the world.

Statistics New Zealand figures released this week show Augusts exports rose $313 million compared with the same time last year, although the deficit was bigger than expected at $641 million.

The gain in exports was led by meat and offal sales.

Federated Farmers President Bruce Wills says the boost by agricultural exports, at a traditionally quiet time of the year, has proved the economic worth of the country’s meat and fibre industries.

He says the figures reflected a continued demand for high quality protein, and sheep and beef farmers were looking forward to another good year.