The latest figures from Rabobank indicate a larger grape harvest than expected for the 2011 season, adding to oversupply problems.

The Rabobank wine report forecasts a possible 13 percent rise in the grape harvest for the year, well above NZ Winegrowers advised numbers at the start of the season.

A leap of 13 percent would mean output could reach around 300 thousand tonnes – numbers not seen since the disastrous 2008 season.

Rabobank senior Analyst Mark Soccio says the numbers reflect great conditions for growing, but these aren’t matched by the market.

"It’s a difficult one, it’s a fairly complex picture, the aggregates of the supply - demand balance for the New Zealand industry is looking a lot better than it was two years ago.

"Unfortunately, a lot of that demand has come at a much lower prices and profitability for New Zealand wine produces so a lot of these sales are coming at a fairly marginal dollar."

NZ Winegrowers Chairman Philip Gregan says in some ways, our growers are victims of their own success.

"I think in general terms the weather has been pretty good around the country.

"We’d like to see plenty of warm and dry weather over the next few months and then we’ll be very happy.

"Things are very good at the moment, but we don’t count our chickens before they come home to roost.

Mr Gregan says higher yields resulting from great growing weather in key wine regions could mean discount sales of bulk wine – the opposite of what growers want.

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