The latest National Bank business outlook survey paints an increasingly worrying economic picture in the face of some promising export numbers.

Business confidence continues to fall – just 16% of respondents are expecting conditions to improve in the coming year.

That’s down 12 points on a month ago and 34 points on the yearly high of February.

National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie says strong Asian economic growth should underpin an export-led recovery.

 “It reflects a two-tiered global economy that we’ve got at the moment. We’re seeing a big structural shift around the globe away from our traditional markets – the likes of the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom – those economies are still struggling.

"If you look at the fastest growing region around the globe at the moment, it is China et al. They’re moving along at 10 per cent growth, and that’s very encouraging in terms of where New Zealand needs to hitch its wagon.”

Mr Bagrie says New Zealand needs to shift from a spending economy to an earning one.

“We need to be an earning-centric economy as opposed to a spending-centric economy. That’s an adjustment that’s not going to take place overnight, but we’re starting to see the semblances of that sort of shift happen across this economy, in fact we’re making small steps in that direction every day.”